CSU opens party conference in Munich facing leadership questions and poll pressure

The Christian Social Union opened its annual party conference in Munich on Friday with chairman Markus Söder facing a string of unresolved political questions, even as the Bavarian premier pointed to improved poll numbers for his party.

Two consecutive surveys this week showed the CSU polling at 37 and 36 percent, figures that match or nearly match the party's result in the 2023 Bavarian state election. Party officials said such numbers would have triggered alarm within the CSU in earlier years, but the bar for success has since shifted lower, giving Söder some room to present the figures as a sign of stability heading into the two-day gathering at the Munich trade fair halls.

Söder has pointed out that the CSU appears to be diverging from the broader downward trend affecting the conservative alliance with the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, at the federal level, despite sitting in government in Berlin alongside the CDU and the Social Democrats. Still, party officials and observers say the conference is taking place against a backdrop of unresolved tension rather than untroubled confidence.

One flashpoint emerged after CSU Secretary General Martin Huber spoke following a recent party board meeting, describing the CSU as "the last big people's party in Bavaria and in Germany," a phrase that officials with the CDU reportedly viewed with irritation. The remark touched a nerve within both sister parties, where concern has grown over whether they can still be described as broad-based, mainstream movements as the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, continues to register strong support in nationwide polling.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who also chairs the CDU, is expected to address the CSU conference on Saturday, though it remains unclear whether he will respond directly to Huber's comment. Party officials say the underlying question of where the conservative movement is headed has become a recurring topic of debate within both the CDU and the CSU, extending well beyond formal party structures into regional discussions across Bavaria.

A separate and long-running question concerns the political future of Ilse Aigner, the sitting president of the Bavarian state parliament. Söder publicly named the 61-year-old as his preferred candidate for the German presidency in an interview several months ago, a statement that set off sustained discussion about her prospects.

Surveys cited by party figures show strong support for Aigner among Bavarians asked about the presidency, suggesting the matter would be settled quickly if the decision rested with the CSU's regional base. The final call, however, lies at the federal level, and no formal decision has been announced. Party officials said before the conference that Söder was expected to use his own conference speech to renew his public backing of Aigner for the post.

Should Merz himself voice clear support for Aigner during his Saturday address in Munich, officials suggested he would likely receive strong applause from delegates. Such an endorsement is considered unlikely, according to people familiar with the party's internal discussions.

Recent polling has also highlighted friction over Merz's own standing. Figures cited within CSU circles show his personal approval ratings and public confidence in his government's work remain low even within Bavaria, traditionally a stronghold for the conservative alliance. Within the CSU, there is reported frustration that Merz has made a series of announcements that have not translated into visible results, a pattern that party figures say has cost him credibility among the party's base.

The two-day conference is expected to address a range of policy issues alongside the personnel questions, with delegates set to debate the party's direction ahead of further electoral tests. Söder's own speech, along with Merz's planned appearance, are being watched closely for signals on both the Aigner question and the broader relationship between the two conservative parties as they navigate persistent pressure from the AfD in opinion polling nationwide.